000140670 001__ 140670 000140670 005__ 20240321220843.0 000140670 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1371/journal.pbio.3000188 000140670 0247_ $$2pmid$$apmid:30964856 000140670 0247_ $$2pmc$$apmc:PMC6456162 000140670 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a1544-9173 000140670 0247_ $$2ISSN$$a1545-7885 000140670 0247_ $$2altmetric$$aaltmetric:58786876 000140670 037__ $$aDZNE-2020-06992 000140670 041__ $$aEnglish 000140670 082__ $$a610 000140670 1001_ $$aPiper, Sophie K$$b0 000140670 245__ $$aExact replication: Foundation of science or game of chance? 000140670 260__ $$aLawrence, KS$$bPLoS$$c2019 000140670 264_1 $$2Crossref$$3online$$bPublic Library of Science (PLoS)$$c2019-04-09 000140670 3367_ $$2DRIVER$$aarticle 000140670 3367_ $$2DataCite$$aOutput Types/Journal article 000140670 3367_ $$0PUB:(DE-HGF)16$$2PUB:(DE-HGF)$$aJournal Article$$bjournal$$mjournal$$s1602232375_13787 000140670 3367_ $$2BibTeX$$aARTICLE 000140670 3367_ $$2ORCID$$aJOURNAL_ARTICLE 000140670 3367_ $$00$$2EndNote$$aJournal Article 000140670 520__ $$aThe need for replication of initial results has been rediscovered only recently in many fields of research. In preclinical biomedical research, it is common practice to conduct exact replications with the same sample sizes as those used in the initial experiments. Such replication attempts, however, have lower probability of replication than is generally appreciated. Indeed, in the common scenario of an effect just reaching statistical significance, the statistical power of the replication experiment assuming the same effect size is approximately 50%-in essence, a coin toss. Accordingly, we use the provocative analogy of 'replicating' a neuroprotective drug animal study with a coin flip to highlight the need for larger sample sizes in replication experiments. Additionally, we provide detailed background for the probability of obtaining a significant p value in a replication experiment and discuss the variability of p values as well as pitfalls of simple binary significance testing in both initial preclinical experiments and replication studies with small sample sizes. We conclude that power analysis for determining the sample size for a replication study is obligatory within the currently dominant hypothesis testing framework. Moreover, publications should include effect size point estimates and corresponding measures of precision, e.g., confidence intervals, to allow readers to assess the magnitude and direction of reported effects and to potentially combine the results of initial and replication study later through Bayesian or meta-analytic approaches. 000140670 536__ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-344$$a344 - Clinical and Health Care Research (POF3-344)$$cPOF3-344$$fPOF III$$x0 000140670 542__ $$2Crossref$$i2019-04-09$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 000140670 588__ $$aDataset connected to CrossRef, PubMed, 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aAnimals 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aBayes Theorem 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aBiomedical Research: methods 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aBiomedical Research: statistics & numerical data 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aData Interpretation, Statistical 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aHumans 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aModels, Statistical 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aProbability 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aPublications 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aReproducibility of Results 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aResearch Design: statistics & numerical data 000140670 650_2 $$2MeSH$$aSample Size 000140670 7001_ $$aGrittner, Ulrike$$b1 000140670 7001_ $$0P:(DE-HGF)0$$aRex, Andre$$b2 000140670 7001_ $$aRiedel, Nico$$b3 000140670 7001_ $$aFischer, Felix$$b4 000140670 7001_ $$aNadon, Robert$$b5 000140670 7001_ $$aSiegerink, Bob$$b6 000140670 7001_ $$0P:(DE-2719)2810838$$aDirnagl, Ulrich$$b7$$eLast author$$udzne 000140670 77318 $$2Crossref$$3journal-article$$a10.1371/journal.pbio.3000188$$b : Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2019-04-09$$n4$$pe3000188$$tPLOS Biology$$v17$$x1545-7885$$y2019 000140670 773__ $$0PERI:(DE-600)2126773-X$$a10.1371/journal.pbio.3000188$$gVol. 17, no. 4, p. e3000188 -$$n4$$pe3000188$$q17:4<e3000188 -$$tPLoS biology$$v17$$x1545-7885$$y2019 000140670 8564_ $$uhttps://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3000188 000140670 8567_ $$2Pubmed Central$$uhttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6456162 000140670 8564_ $$uhttps://pub.dzne.de/record/140670/files/2014.pdf$$yOpenAccess 000140670 8564_ $$uhttps://pub.dzne.de/record/140670/files/2014.gif?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yOpenAccess 000140670 8564_ $$uhttps://pub.dzne.de/record/140670/files/2014.jpg?subformat=icon-1440$$xicon-1440$$yOpenAccess 000140670 8564_ $$uhttps://pub.dzne.de/record/140670/files/2014.jpg?subformat=icon-180$$xicon-180$$yOpenAccess 000140670 8564_ $$uhttps://pub.dzne.de/record/140670/files/2014.jpg?subformat=icon-640$$xicon-640$$yOpenAccess 000140670 8564_ $$uhttps://pub.dzne.de/record/140670/files/2014.pdf?subformat=pdfa$$xpdfa$$yOpenAccess 000140670 909CO $$ooai:pub.dzne.de:140670$$pdnbdelivery$$pdriver$$pVDB$$popen_access$$popenaire 000140670 9101_ $$0I:(DE-588)1065079516$$6P:(DE-2719)2810838$$aDeutsches Zentrum für Neurodegenerative Erkrankungen$$b7$$kDZNE 000140670 9131_ $$0G:(DE-HGF)POF3-344$$1G:(DE-HGF)POF3-340$$2G:(DE-HGF)POF3-300$$aDE-HGF$$bForschungsbereich Gesundheit$$lErkrankungen des Nervensystems$$vClinical and Health Care Research$$x0 000140670 9141_ $$y2019 000140670 915__ $$0LIC:(DE-HGF)CCBYNV$$2V:(DE-HGF)$$aCreative Commons Attribution CC BY (No Version)$$bDOAJ 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0510$$2StatID$$aOpenAccess 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0200$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bSCOPUS$$d2022-11-11 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0300$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bMedline$$d2022-11-11 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0501$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bDOAJ Seal$$d2022-01-10T10:28:08Z 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0500$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bDOAJ$$d2022-01-10T10:28:08Z 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0030$$2StatID$$aPeer Review$$bDOAJ : Blind peer review$$d2022-01-10T10:28:08Z 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0199$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bClarivate Analytics Master Journal List$$d2022-11-11 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)0150$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bWeb of Science Core Collection$$d2022-11-11 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1050$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bBIOSIS Previews$$d2022-11-11 000140670 915__ $$0StatID:(DE-HGF)1030$$2StatID$$aDBCoverage$$bCurrent Contents - 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