TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bauch, Anne
AU  - Baur, Julia
AU  - Honold, Iris
AU  - Willmann, Matthias
AU  - Weber, Greta Louise
AU  - Müller, Stephan
AU  - Sodenkamp, Sebastian
AU  - Peter, Silke
AU  - Schoppmeier, Ulrich
AU  - Laske, Christoph
TI  - Prognostic Value of a Multivariate Gut Microbiome Model for Progression from Normal Cognition to Mild Cognitive Impairment Within 4 Years.
JO  - International journal of molecular sciences
VL  - 26
IS  - 10
SN  - 1422-0067
CY  - Basel
PB  - Molecular Diversity Preservation International
M1  - DZNE-2025-00637
SP  - 4735
PY  - 2025
AB  - Little is known about the dysbiosis of the gut microbiome in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) potentially at risk for the development of Alzheimer's disease (AD). So far, only cross-sectional differences and not longitudinal changes and their prognostic significance have been in the scope of research in MCI. Therefore, we investigated the ability of longitudinal taxonomic and functional gut microbiome data from 100 healthy controls (HC) to predict the progression from normal cognition to MCI over a 4-year follow-up period (4yFU). Logistic regression models were built with baseline features that best discriminated between the two groups using an ANOVA-type statistical analysis. The best model for the discrimination of MCI converters was based on functional data using Gene Ontology (GO), which included 14 features. This model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.84 at baseline, 0.78 at the 1-year follow-up (1yFU), and 0.75 at 4yFU. This functional model outperformed the taxonomic model, which included 38 genera features, in terms of descriptive performance and showed comparable efficacy to combined analyses integrating functional, taxonomic, and clinical characteristics. Thus, gut microbiome algorithms have the potential to predict MCI conversion in HCs over a 4-year period, offering a promising innovative supplement for early AD identification.
KW  - Humans
KW  - Cognitive Dysfunction: microbiology
KW  - Cognitive Dysfunction: diagnosis
KW  - Gastrointestinal Microbiome
KW  - Male
KW  - Female
KW  - Prognosis
KW  - Disease Progression
KW  - Aged
KW  - Cognition
KW  - Alzheimer Disease: microbiology
KW  - ROC Curve
KW  - Middle Aged
KW  - Alzheimer’s disease (Other)
KW  - gut microbiome (Other)
KW  - longitudinal observational study (Other)
KW  - mild cognitive impairment (Other)
KW  - prediction model (Other)
LB  - PUB:(DE-HGF)16
C6  - pmid:40429881
C2  - pmc:PMC12112180
DO  - DOI:10.3390/ijms26104735
UR  - https://pub.dzne.de/record/278911
ER  -