%0 Journal Article %A Hendrickx, Niels %A Mentré, France %A Hamdan, Alzahra %A Karlsson, Mats O %A Hooker, Andrew C %A Traschütz, Andreas %A Gagnon, Cynthia %A Schüle-Freyer, Rebecca %A Synofzik, Matthis %A Comets, Emmanuelle %T Comparing randomized trial designs to estimate treatment effect in rare diseases with longitudinal models: a simulation study showcased by Autosomal Recessive Cerebellar Ataxias using the SARA score. %J BMC medical research methodology %V 25 %N 1 %@ 1471-2288 %C London %I BioMed Central %M DZNE-2025-00920 %P 179 %D 2025 %X Parallel designs with an end-of-treatment analysis are commonly used for randomised trials, but they remain challenging to conduct in rare diseases due to small sample size and heterogeneity. A more powerful alternative could be to use model-based approaches. We investigated the performance of longitudinal modelling to evaluate disease-modifying treatments in rare diseases using simulations. Our setting was based on a model describing the progression of the standard clinician-reported outcome SARA score in patients with ARCA (Autosomal Recessive Cerebellar Ataxia), a group of ultra-rare, genetically defined, neurodegenerative diseases. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the influence of trials settings on their ability to detect a treatment effect slowing disease progression, using a previously published non-linear mixed effect logistic model. We compared the power of parallel, crossover and delayed start designs, investigating several trial settings: trial duration (2 or 5 years); disease progression rate (slower or faster); magnitude of residual error (σ=2 or σ=0.5); number of patients (100 or 40); method of statistical analysis (longitudinal analysis with non-linear or linear models; standard statistical analysis), and we investigated their influence on the type 1 error and corrected power of randomised trials. In all settings, using non-linear mixed effect models resulted in controlled type 1 error and higher power (88 %K Humans %K Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic: methods %K Cerebellar Ataxia: therapy %K Cerebellar Ataxia: genetics %K Computer Simulation %K Longitudinal Studies %K Disease Progression %K Research Design %K Rare Diseases: therapy %K Treatment Outcome %K Clinical trial design (Other) %K Model-based analysis (Other) %K Non-linear Mixed effect models (Other) %K Rare disease (Other) %K Simulation study (Other) %F PUB:(DE-HGF)16 %9 Journal Article %$ pmid:40739200 %2 pmc:PMC12309037 %R 10.1186/s12874-025-02626-x %U https://pub.dzne.de/record/280242