Home > Publications Database > Toward targeted dementia prevention: Population attributable fractions and risk profiles in Germany > print

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100 1 _ |a Blotenberg, Iris
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245 _ _ |a Toward targeted dementia prevention: Population attributable fractions and risk profiles in Germany
260 _ _ |a Hoboken, NJ
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520 _ _ |a INTRODUCTIONEffective dementia prevention requires understanding the distribution of modifiable risk factors and identifying high-risk subgroups. We estimated the prevention potential in Germany and identified risk profiles to inform precision public health.METHODSWe analyzed nationally representative data from the 2023 German Aging Survey (n = 4992). Population attributable fractions and potential impact fractions were computed for established modifiable risk factors. Relative risks were taken from meta-analyses. Latent class analysis identified risk profiles.RESULTSAn estimated 36% of dementia cases in Germany are attributable to modifiable risk factors. Reducing their prevalence by 15%–30% could prevent 170,000–330,000 cases by 2050. We identified four risk profiles—metabolic, sensory impairment, alcohol, and lower-risk—each associated with demographic and regional characteristics.DISCUSSIONOur findings highlight considerable national prevention potential and reveal population subgroups with shared risk patterns. These profiles provide a foundation for designing targeted, equitable, and efficient dementia prevention strategies.Highlights36% of dementia cases in Germany are linked to modifiable risk factors.A 15% reduction in risk factor prevalence could prevent 170,000 cases by 2050.Key contributors: depression, hearing loss, low education, and obesity.Data-driven risk profiles identified (e.g., metabolic, sensory, low-risk).Risk profiles strongly associated with sociodemographic characteristics.
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700 1 _ |a Thyrian, Jochen René
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773 _ _ |a 10.1002/dad2.70225
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