Journal Article

DZNE-2026-00180

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Revising the ABIDE MCI to dementia prediction model for automated cerebrospinal fluid assays.

van der Veere, P. J. ; van Harten, A. C. ; van Maurik, I. S. ; Teunissen, C. E. ; Barkhof, F. ; Vos, S. J. B. ; Froelich, L. ; Kornhuber, J. ; Wiltfang, J.DZNE* ; Maier, W.DZNE* ; Peters, O.DZNE* ; Rüther, E. ; Frisoni, G. B. ; Spiru, L. ; Freund-Levi, Y. ; Wallin, Å. K. ; Hampel, H. ; Tsolaki, M. ; Kłoszewska, I. ; Mecocci, P. ; Vellas, B. ; Lovestone, S. ; Galluzzi, S. ; Herukka, S.-K. ; Santana, I. ; Baldeiras, I. ; de Mendonca, A. ; Silva, D. ; Chetelat, G. ; Poisnel, G. ; Visser, P. J. ; Johnson, S. C. ; Stormrud, E. ; Hansson, O. ; Palmqvist, S. ; Piñol-Ripoll, G. ; Initiative, A. D. N. (Collaboration Author) ; Berkhof, J. ; van der Flier, W. M.

2026
Wiley Hoboken, NJ

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1002/alz.71192

Abstract: Automated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker assays have largely replaced manual immunoassays for measuring amyloid pathology in CSF. We refitted and validated the ABIDE model, predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia, with CSF measurements from the automated Elecsys platform.We included 2413 MCI participants (998 [41%] amyloid-positive) from seven observational cohorts. Elecsys was used in 958 (40%) participants. The parameters of the previous ABIDE Cox model were re-estimated. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated with leave-one-cohort-out cross-validation.During follow-up, 1034 (42%; 585 [58%] amyloid-positive) participants developed dementia. Discrimination was good with Harrell's C of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66-0.73). Calibration was good in the total population and amyloid-positive subgroup, with substantial predicted progression risks for all amyloid-positive participants.We refitted the ABIDE model, predicting MCI to dementia progression, with automated CSF measurements. The model was well calibrated in amyloid-positive patients and may support clinical discussions regarding ATTs.

Keyword(s): Humans (MeSH) ; Cognitive Dysfunction: cerebrospinal fluid (MeSH) ; Cognitive Dysfunction: diagnosis (MeSH) ; Dementia: cerebrospinal fluid (MeSH) ; Dementia: diagnosis (MeSH) ; Male (MeSH) ; Female (MeSH) ; Aged (MeSH) ; Disease Progression (MeSH) ; Biomarkers: cerebrospinal fluid (MeSH) ; Amyloid beta-Peptides: cerebrospinal fluid (MeSH) ; Cohort Studies (MeSH) ; Aged, 80 and over (MeSH) ; Alzheimer's disease ; automated cerebrospinal fluid assays ; cerebrospinal fluid ; dementia ; mild cognitive dementia ; prediction ; Biomarkers ; Amyloid beta-Peptides

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Molecular biomarkers for predictive diagnostics of neurodegenerative diseases (AG Wiltfang)
2. Neuropsychology (AG Wagner)
3. Biomarker-Assisted Early Detection of Dementias (AG Peters)

Research Program(s):

1. 353 - Clinical and Health Care Research (POF4-353) (POF4-353)

Appears in the scientific report 2026

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Database coverage:
; Clarivate Analytics Master Journal List ; Current Contents - Clinical Medicine ; DEAL Wiley ; Essential Science Indicators ; IF >= 10 ; JCR ; PubMed Central ; SCOPUS ; Science Citation Index Expanded ; Web of Science Core Collection

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