Journal Article

DZNE-2025-01304

http://join2-wiki.gsi.de/foswiki/pub/Main/Artwork/join2_logo100x88.png Toward targeted dementia prevention: Population attributable fractions and risk profiles in Germany

Blotenberg, I. (First author)DZNE* ; Thyrian, J. R. (Last author)DZNE*

2025
Wiley Hoboken, NJ

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Please use a persistent id in citations: doi:10.1002/dad2.70225

Abstract: INTRODUCTIONEffective dementia prevention requires understanding the distribution of modifiable risk factors and identifying high-risk subgroups. We estimated the prevention potential in Germany and identified risk profiles to inform precision public health.METHODSWe analyzed nationally representative data from the 2023 German Aging Survey (n = 4992). Population attributable fractions and potential impact fractions were computed for established modifiable risk factors. Relative risks were taken from meta-analyses. Latent class analysis identified risk profiles.RESULTSAn estimated 36% of dementia cases in Germany are attributable to modifiable risk factors. Reducing their prevalence by 15%–30% could prevent 170,000–330,000 cases by 2050. We identified four risk profiles—metabolic, sensory impairment, alcohol, and lower-risk—each associated with demographic and regional characteristics.DISCUSSIONOur findings highlight considerable national prevention potential and reveal population subgroups with shared risk patterns. These profiles provide a foundation for designing targeted, equitable, and efficient dementia prevention strategies.Highlights36% of dementia cases in Germany are linked to modifiable risk factors.A 15% reduction in risk factor prevalence could prevent 170,000 cases by 2050.Key contributors: depression, hearing loss, low education, and obesity.Data-driven risk profiles identified (e.g., metabolic, sensory, low-risk).Risk profiles strongly associated with sociodemographic characteristics.

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Contributing Institute(s):

1. Interventional Health Care Research (IHCR) (AG Thyrian)

Research Program(s):

1. 353 - Clinical and Health Care Research (POF4-353) (POF4-353)

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Database coverage:
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